Böööyük balon kasım sonunda patlacak....

[kayahan]

November 11, 2010
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer, FX Concepts

Now that Ben Bernanke has re-introduced quantitative easing (QE2) to a mostly incredulous world and, across the ocean, the Eurozone has begun unraveling again, our thoughts should turn to the parlous state of the world and the risks ahead. These are amazing times and seem to grow more so every day. Policy errors are popping up everywhere and are likely to multiply dramatically as the political problems are serious, answers hard to find, and the decision makers are not up to the task. Bernanke has proven that he is more a college professor and less a trader, which will cost the world dearly. Sometime between June and August Bernanke lost his stomach for the “exit strategy,” probably influenced by his predecessor’s summer announcement that the US economy had ‘hit an invisible wall.” While it can be argued that QE1 has been a success due to the liquidity crisis, it did not expand the Fed’s balance sheet and came when the economy was still reeling. This new edition dramatically expands the balance sheet, actually funding the entire projected government deficit over the next few months. Although the world believes that QE2 is there to push the dollar sharply lower, Bernanke argued that his goal was something else. On the day after the Fed’s move, he wrote in a Washington Post editorial piece that QE2 would push up the equity market, bonds, and other risky securities thereby stimulating consumption and economic activity. Even Greenspan did not publicly proclaim his “put,” but now Bernanke has made it the centerpiece of US strategy. Equities are already overpriced, with profit margins at all-time highs and PE ratios far above average. Speculation is now more American than apple pie – but this is a very risky time to practice it. As one highly respected analyst noted about Bernanke’s article, “these are undoubtedly among the most ignorant remarks ever made by a central banker.” As we and many others have noted that QE has shown little or no positive impact on actual economic activity, so the Fed has taken a big gamble, and if it fails as we expect it will have nowhere else to go. With the Republican victory tainted by the Tea Party “starve the beast” mentality, austerity has come to Washington. This next year will be a terrible one for the world’s biggest economy, so we would go against Bernanke on the equity side, but buy government bonds along with him.

The Eurozone has begun its collapse a little later than we thought. My compliments to the political prowess of the euro-leaders for holding things together for so long, but this is an impossible situation and the crisis is on its way. Jean-Claude Trichet caught the spirit of the situation today in Seoul when he said that “it is absolutely necessary to change the governance of Europe” and called for moving “as far as possible in the direction of an economic and budgetary quasi-federation.” I only disagree with part of one word, ‘quasi,‘ as Europe must move to a full economic federation if the euro is to survive. With 16 countries using the euro and Estonia on the way, the odds of moving there is currently lower than infinitesimal. Things will change after the approaching horrible economic and political catastrophes that will wrack some of these economies and societies. Unfortunately nothing will happen before the current situation gets unbearable – this is the way of democratic politics. As all the leaders are still working toward the same goals, and no one has stepped forward express the inchoate fears of the European populace, this should take years. By the start of next year the Eurozone will enter a recession that will test the current leadership. The euro, which has been perceived as if it were a German mark, has already topped and will decline until it is priced like an Italian lira in the next few months. With Europe and the US in recession next year, commodity prices will drop again and global growth will suffer despite the outperformance of domestic Asian economies. With the policy stresses, and the risk of significant errors in judgment, international strife becomes more likely as well.

[kayahan]

Brussels / Berlin (Reuters) - In the debt crisis asks Greece to Ireland now also in Brussels to billions of aid from the EU:

That was in difficulties in the financial land is in the call on funds from the 750 billion dollar €-shield, as several representatives of Euro-countries on Friday confirmed the news agency Reuters. It is very likely that it will also receive the assistance. The Irish Finance Ministry said, however, that the country had made no request for emergency assistance. Also € group chief Jean-Claude Juncker waved: The country currently has not asked for help. "And I have no immediate reason to believe that Ireland will ask," said Luxembourg Prime Minister.

The prospect of EU assistance provided yet for relaxation in the bond markets: the last to ever new highs climbed risk premiums for Irish government bonds were down considerably. The euro was at $ 1.3715 after. The markets had already been speculation made the rounds, the island republic would soon be the EU's call for help. "The market has lost faith that it creates Ireland without the rescue," said one trader.

The country could damp market rumors that some 80 billion from the rescue fund from the EU and IMF get. Sparked had been market expectations of a report in the Irish Times, that there had been informal contacts between Brussels, Berlin and other European governments to aid for Ireland. Juncker said on Friday that he had recently with several colleagues to talk "not just about Ireland." The Ministry of Finance in Dublin had insisted until recently that the country was not in a predicament in which it had to ask for help.

Ireland needs before mid-2011, no fresh money. But in Ireland the problems are piling up: The country is groaning under the impact of the financial crisis that has brought the banking sector difficulties. The State had to play helpers and invest billions to support banks as the economy went into a tailspin. As a result, the government deficit is exploding. The debt crisis on the green island has rattled the financial markets, therefore, belonging to Ireland call now on a par with Greece. The Bankruptcy candidate had taken refuge in April in the arms of the EU.

For increasing nervousness in the market of the last attempt by Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had arranged to bring a bankruptcy order for EU countries on track. The federal government is under pressure because the procedures are to be lashed for the new Euro-emergency parachute at the EU summit in mid-December. According to German business games would be after the expiry of the current rescue fund in mid-2013, private creditors to pay, if not more countries to shoulder their debt load. Here, the terms of the bonds could be extended or the returns are reduced. Ireland reacted angrily to the deliberations of the Franco-German tandem. As representatives of € told Reuters countries are in any aid to Ireland private creditors are not likely to bleed.

The prospect of potential losses that had pushed yields on poor countries like Ireland and Portugal in the last level. The representatives of the European Union (EU) had therefore already on the edge of the G20 summit in Seoul tries to calm things down. The plans for a bankruptcy order concerned only new loans, it said in a joint statement, the Finance Minister of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK. Already issued debt are not affected. The regulations which provide for participation of investors occurred, therefore, only after mid-2013.

[lazar]

grash Çin'de başladı.

abrasıgımın

[kayahan]

* guardian.co.uk, Monday 15 November 2010 17.59 GMT
* Article history

Brian Lenihan Delivers Ireland's Budget Brian Lenihan, Ireland's finance minister, will discuss the situation with eurozone finance ministers in Brussels tomorrow. Photograph Bloomberg via Getty Images

An increasingly isolated Irish government was coming under mounting pressure tonight to seek an EU or International Monetary Fund bailout within 24 hours amid fears that contagion from its crippled banking sector might spread through the weaker eurozone countries.

Portugal, Spain, the European central bank and opposition parties urged Brian Cowen's coalition government to remove the threat of a second crisis in six months by putting a firewall between Ireland and its 15 partners in the single currency.

With finance ministers from the eurozone due to hold emergency talks tomorrow night, financial markets were expecting Dublin to finalise negotiations with the EU over the terms of a deal to allow Ireland to rescue banks laid low by the collapse of the country's construction boom.

"The Irish problem is spreading, but it could get more volatile," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at London Capital, a fund management firm. "They have to get this bailout, they have a period of time before it gets impossible, before nasty things happen. The longer they leave it, the more difficult it will get."

Portugal has seen its borrowing costs rocket along with Ireland's as speculation has grown that it too may have to consider a bailout. Its finance minister, Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, told the Wall Street Journal his country had been hit by a contagion effect caused by fears about Ireland's ability to pay its debts.

"I would not want to lecture the Irish government on that," he said. "I want to believe they will decide to do what is most appropriate for Ireland and the euro. I want to believe they have the vision to take the right decision."

The Bank of Spain governor, Miguel Ángel Fernández Ordóñez, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, told a banking conference in Madrid he expected an "appropriate reaction" by Ireland to calm the markets. He later told reporters: "The situation in the markets has been negative due in some part to the lack of a decision by Ireland. It's not up to me to make a decision on Ireland, it's Ireland that should take the decision at the right moment." Ewald Nowotny, another ECB governing council member, said in a radio interview the EU wanted a "quick, good solution to Ireland, so that there will be no spillover" to other heavily indebted countries such as Portugal and Spain.

Weekend reports that Ireland was holding bailout talks with the EU helped ease pressure on Irish borrowing costs today, with the yield on benchmark 10-year Irish bonds easing to 8.1% from a peak of over 9% last week. The premium that investors demand to hold Irish 10-year bonds over benchmark German bunds (known as the spread) also fell to 545 basis points, down from a record 652 basis points last Thursday.

Analysts warned, however, that the selling would quickly resume if Ireland tried to go it alone. "The expectation of a bailout for Ireland helped its spreads to recover from last week's capitulation," said Gavan Nolan, a credit analyst at Markit. "It's good to talk." Despite Ireland's insistence that it doesn't need to be rescued, investors say the country needs support, given the fragility of its moribund banking system, and the high borrowing costs limiting the capacity of companies to raise funds.

Ireland's Europe minister, Dick Roche, said rumours that it was on the verge of seeking a bailout could be "very, very dangerous".

He conceded: "There is continuous talk going on backwards and forwards about the level of our debt but the suggestion that that constitutes going to the IMF or the bailout is just irresponsible." Ireland's opposition finance spokesman, Michael Noonan, said he believed European intervention was "under way" and matters would come to a head within 24 hours. The government, he said, was "fighting a rearguard action for appearances purposes".

Noonan said a bailout could lead to Ireland being suspended from the bond markets for three or four years.

[lazar]

İkinci dip başladı mı acaba?
Dolar hariç herşeyi satıyorlar...
Altın geçen haftaya göre 80 dolar aşağıda,
1290'larda bir destek var, tutmaz orası...

[lazar]

hacı kayahan bu,

boru deel...

goccümen dassseklüü...

hi ho ho

[Buyukcan83]

Son bir çıkış fırsatı inşallah.Yoksa ipimizi çekecekler.

[kayahan]

LONDON (MarketWatch) — European government bond markets were in turmoil Tuesday, as Portuguese and Spanish yields followed Irish yields sharply higher on growing doubts about the ability of politicians to contain the euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Rising bond yields underline fears that the debt crisis, which has already forced Greece and Ireland to seek bailouts, will spread to other high-deficit countries, potentially shutting them out of credit markets.

“I think anything from here is possible,” said Kenneth Broux, senior market economist at Lloyds TSB.


Funds appear to be increasing their bets against peripheral euro-zone bonds, strategists said.

The yield premium demanded by investors to hold Portuguese 10-year bonds versus German bunds widened to 4.34 percentage points from around 4.08 percentage points Monday.

The spread between Spanish and German yields widened to 2.32 percentage points, exceeding the spread of 2.27 percentage points seen earlier this month.

The euro /quotes/comstock/21o!x:seurusd (EURUSD 1.3375, -0.0241, -1.7697%) extended a steep loss versus the dollar to trade at $1.3422, dropping 1.4% to hit its lowest level since late September.

“It feels like the situation is accelerating towards a climax here,” said John J. Hardy, consulting foreign-exchange strategist at Saxo Bank.

The resurgence of the debt crisis underlines questions about the rigor of the bank stress tests earlier this summer, which were initially hailed for easing bank-related worries, Broux said. No Irish or Portuguese banks failed the stress tests.

Economists had warned that Portugal and then, potentially, Spain would be vulnerable to pressure once Ireland was forced to accept a bailout. Dublin on Sunday applied for an aid package expected to total around 90 billion euros ($121.4 billion). Read about worries over Portugal and Spain.

Irish bonds were under pressure as Prime Minister Brian Cowen fought to hold off general elections until after the approval of budget measures viewed as a prerequisite for aid. Read about Ireland's political turmoil.

Remarks by German Chancellor Angela Merkel added to the desperate tone in currency and credit markets, analysts said.

Merkel, speaking in Germany, said the euro faces an “extraordinarily serious situation.” Merkel said the Irish situation is “very worrying,” according to Dow Jones Newswires.

The chancellor also said she will continue to insist that private lenders participate in a future mechanism for resolving euro-zone debt crises, indicating bond holders would be required to take writedowns in the event of future bailouts.

Germany and other euro-zone countries have said such changes won’t take effect before mid-2013.

William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.

[bull market]

Kaahan nerdesin?

Yoksun, bööyyük balon patladı amasen yoksun.

Demekki varlığın ralli yokluğun çöküş

[kayahan]

Kaahan nerdesin?

Yoksun, bööyyük balon patladı amasen yoksun.

Demekki varlığın ralli yokluğun çöküş

şu an BULGARİSTANDA VARNA DA YIM. HATUNLAR KALİTELİ

[kayahan]

"President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days."
-- Washington Dispatch, March 8, 1930


•"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern... American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
-- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930


•"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States - that is, prosperity."
-- President Hoover, May 1, 1930


•"Editorial defending World War veteran's relief bill. Expected Hoover veto may be overriden by Congress, but the bill has already been much improved to reduce unfairness and waste. Defends admittedly large spending soon to approach $1B, considering promises to recruits made in 1917 and number of disabled veterans not yet cared for. While some waste remains it's not the worst example considering the $500M spent on wheat and cotton support, etc."

Some current stock prices as percentage of their 1929 highs: Krueger 17%, Chrysler 18%, Montgomery Ward 21%, IT&T 27%, GM 42%, Woolworth 49%, US Steel 58%.

Col. Ayres, VP Cleveland Trust, predicts an abrupt recovery in stock and commodity prices by Labor Day due to current consumption exceeding production. Distinguishes between two types of depression, “V”-shaped and “U”-shaped.

Smoot Hawley trade protectionism bill signed by Hoover this week.

In spite of not having any tax revenue for the past two years Chicago is only carrying about $95 per capita of debt, compared to $245 for New York City.

-- Wall Street Journal, June 25, 1930
•"The worst is over without a doubt."
- James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor, June 29, 1930


•"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
-- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930


•"Gasoline consumption first 5 months of 1930 up 12.6% over 1929; May consumption up 5.3% over 1929."

-- Wall Street Journal, July 3, 1930

Quelle: http://www.nowandfutures.com/great_depression.html

[kayahan]

A LIST OF CONCERNS — A DOZEN OF THEM

* 1. China is overheating and more policy tightening will likely be needed. When government officials begin discussing price controls, you know the situation is serious.
* 2. The European debt crisis. If the contagion reaches Spain, it would likely be game over for the euro. The Spanish bond market is behaving similar to the Irish market around the time of the Greece bailout.
* 3. QE2. It is too early to judge whether it is a success or a failure. If the aim was to kick-start the equity market, then all we can say is that so far all QE2 has done is help bring the S&P 500 to the high end of a broad 1,000-1,200 band, which has been prevailing for 14 months now.
* 4. We remain concerned that Canada experienced some sort of housing bubble in 2009 and into 2010.
* 5. Renewed housing deflation in the United States. The problem of excess supply has improved enough to forestall another down-leg in national home prices. Median new home prices have collapsed at nearly a 30% annual rate over the past four months and resale values in the existing home market are down almost 20%. Nowhere was this fact cited in the press, which instead focuses myopically on Black Friday shopping, and possibly missing a very big story here.
* 6. Canadian household leverage — debt ratios are as high as they were in the U.S.A. at the peak in relation to income.
* 7. Lack of productivity growth in Canada. This is a key source of debate — but we contend that the U.S. data are overstated and the Canadian data are understated.
* 8. The Canadian dollar. In our view, it is still overvalued by a nickel even with the recent firming in the commodity complex, though strong international capital inflows are providing a very firm floor under the loonie.
* 9. The dramatic retrenchment at the state/local government sector south of the border (= in USA - A.L.) and the negative feedback effects on domestic demand. This is the one critical source of downside risk for the U.S. economy in 2011, which could easily result in 1.5-2.0 percentage points of withdrawal from GDP growth.
* 10. Currency wars.
* 11.Military skirmishes. The two Koreas as an example but the situation will also test China-U.S. foreign relations as Beijing tells America to butt out. In recent months, China has been making strides to deepen its economic and strategic relationship with North Korea despite American objections.
* 12. Downside risk to the consensus view of global growth of 4.2% next year. It does not seem to me that economists have fully taken into account the drag from the fiscal side of things in the U.S. and in the Euro region. Global GDP consensus has been at 4.2% for several months. Interestingly, the BoC took down their 4% view to 3.5% last month — so they could be ahead of the pack.