DJIA Seasonal Chain Relative Composite Index
The chart below updates my DJIA Seasonal Chain Relative Composite Index with respect to the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Ceres, Jupiter, Saturn, Chiron, and Uranus through the 11 September 2013 closing price. You can find an older version of the chart on Platy's blog. The chart below looks different because I exported the calculated data from R to Microsoft Excel. This allowed me to make the chart more legible and annotate it better.
You will note that there is a slight shift from the original 2 May 2013 projected date of the peak to 8 May 2013. The latter date is based on in sample data while the original projection was forecast. The model completely missed the 24 June 2013 low but captured the 28 August 2013 low missing it only by a few days. I think this was because the composite index at this time is heavily influenced by the correlation of Uranus's position to the value of DJIA in 1929. The composite index is less influenced by the correlation of the other planets to the value of DJIA in 1929 because whatever happened then is offset by less severe behavior in prior and subsequent planetary cycles. For example, Jupiter since 1896 has completed 9 heliocentric cycles while Saturn has completed nearly 4 cycles and the Earth has completed 117 cycles.
The next major peak is forecast for 20 January 2014 after which DJIA is expected to fall off the cliff.
Cash S&P 500 Fibonacci Projection
In this post, I show simple Fibonacci projections from price lows based on an extension of Gann's method.
Fibonacci ratios have been used to calculate retracement levels given a price move. They can also be used to calculate extensions of price moves. However, W.D. Gann used a different method to calculate retracement levels and extensions based on the price of a pivot. Tom DeMark has also used similar methods to calculate retracements based on all-time highs.
The chart below shows the monthly highs and lows of the Cash S&P 500 Index plotted in the order they occurred. The 2002-2003 bottom was formed with three dives that marked the lows on 2002-07-24, 2002-10-10, and 2003-03-11. The 2003-03-11 low was the bifurcation point and that level is shown in blue. Projecting upward from this 100% level to the 200%, you get 788.9 x 200% = 1577.80 (red line). The actual 2007 bull market high was 1576.09
The 2008-2009 bottom was also formed with three dives that marked the lows on 2008-10-10, 2008-11-21, and 2009-03-06. Projecting upward from the 2009-03-06 bifurcation point whose 666.79 level is shown in white, you get the 161.8% level shown in yellow that marked the 2011-10-04 low, the 200% level shown in magenta that marked the first of three drives that peaked on 2011-02-18 at 1344.07 (predicted level was 1333.58), and the 261.8% level shown in cyan that is yet to be reached.
If the market runs true to script, we should get a strong reaction and perhaps even a bull market peak when 1745.68 is hit.
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