Bu son mesajda ne demişler bunlar?
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Bu son mesajda ne demişler bunlar?
Kayahannnn iki satır türkçe altına çiziktiriverseydin:) Türkiye için bişey demişlerde:)
[B]US-Konjunktur: Verbraucherkredite stark eingebrochen[/B]
Datum 07.10.2008 - Uhrzeit 22:39 (© BörseGo AG 2000-2008, Autor: Hoyer Christian, Redakteur
[IMG]http://www.godmode-trader.de/front/ajax/data.php?function=updateReadCount&articleId=1004393&categoryId=24[/IMG]Washington (BoerseGo.de) – Laut der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve ist das Volumen der US-Verbraucherkredite im August um 7,9 Milliarden Dollar auf insgesamt 2,58 Billionen Dollar gefallen, was den ersten Rückgang seit dem Januar 1998 bedeutet. Der Umfang der kurzfristigen Schulden wie etwa Kreditkartenschulden fiel um 0,8 Prozent oder 612 Millionen Dollar auf 969 Milliarden Dollar. Die Kreditkartenbenutzung macht etwa 40 Prozent aller Konsumentenkredite aus. Die Mehrheit sind sogenannte nicht-revolvierende Kredite (Kredite zum Kauf eines neuen Autos, Finanzierung eines Urlaubs oder Ausbildung), die im August einen Rückgang von 5,4 Prozent oder 7,3 Milliarden auf 1,61 Billionen Dollar verzeichnen. .dng.dng.kom.lelele:dü:.brv
[B]21.52[/B] Die Aktien der US-Bank [URL="http://www.ftd.de/ticker/US6174464486.N"]Morgan Stanley[/URL] haben am Dienstag [B]rund 25 Prozent an Wert verloren[/B]. Der Kurs gab bis zum Nachmittag New Yorker Zeit um fast 6 $ nach. Hintergrund sind Medienberichte, wonach die japanische Bank [URL="http://markets.ftd.de/stocks/factsheet_overview.html?ID_NOTATION=2590138"]Mitsubishi UFJ[/URL] doch nicht [B]wie geplant mit 20 Prozent bei dem angeschlagenen Institut einsteigen könnte[/B]. Morgan Stanley wies die Befürchtungen zurück - dem Aktienkurs half das nicht.
japonlar morgen stanley'e yardim etmekten vaz gecmis!!!!.dng:dü:
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
ABD VATANDASLARI son 15 ayda finansal krizde 2 trilyon$ para kaybetmisler. abd kongresi raporuna gore!!!.dng
[B]21.38[/B] Die Pensionskassen der US-Bürger haben als Folge der Finanzmarktkrise in den vergangenen 15 Monaten [B]2000 Mrd. $[/B] verloren. Diese Zahl nannte am Dienstag der Leiter der Kongress-Rechnungsbehörde CBO, Peter Orszag, vor einem Ausschuss des Repräsentantenhauses. Der untersucht derzeit, wie sich die Immobilien- und Bankenkrise auf die Pensionskassen auswirkt. Viele Arbeitnehmer würden wegen der Verluste wahrscheinlich gezwungen, auf [B]größere Konsumausgaben zu verzichten[/B] und [B]mehr zu sparen[/B] - oder [B]später in Rente zu gehen[/B], sagte Orszag.
sayın kayahan imkb çöcek diye diye çökerttiniz peki düşüş hedefiniz nedir ? bir hedefiniz varmı nerde durur endeks sizce
geçen gün için kusura bakma arkadaş....
sadece senden forum adına bir özür görmek yerine........
ortadan kaybolmanla yaşanan ralli sonrası tekrar yazılarını görünce ve sonrası bir tepki daha yaşanması ile kendimi kaybettim....seni başka tarz insanlarla karıştırdım ve yazdım.....
tekrar kusura bakma yolunda devam et.....
iyi çalışmalar...
[INDENT] THE GLOBAL DEFLATIONARY CREDIT CRASH:
A credit contraction which becomes deflationary takes the prices of most
or all economic goods and financial assets down with it. If some of these
economic goods were used as collateral for other loans, the fall in
collateral values cuts right in under of the safety of the loans, causing the
lenders huge losses. Once the lenders’ capital is exhausted, they too go
broke. That undercuts ALL the other deposits people have in place with
the lenders. This is happening right now. Once other depositors get
scared - they run! That too is happening - right now.
[B]First, people run towards a “safer” institution. Then, to a “safer” place.[/B]
The Penultimate Stage Of The Credit Collapse:
Ever since the era of “fractional reserve” banking and government deficit spending began, the great fear of
bankers and governments has always been a situation where the people fled the “safety” of financial
institutions for literal CASH. On the Inside The European Union page in this issue, we speak of “Bank
Runs Lateral And REAL”. The “lateral” runs are on in earnest as money is extracted from the “markets”
and transferred from commercial to state-owned “savings” banks. There is a huge stampede into
government-guaranteed accounts. This is so far a lateral bank run. The money is staying inside the
system, but it is not helping the banks because their ability to use it to lend new money into existence is
curtailed. In recent days, there have been more and more reports about the withdrawing of actual CASH.
Should this tendency to withdraw cash intensify in coming days and weeks, we will have reached the
“penultimate” stage of this deflationary credit crash.
[B]The LAST stage is the one where the public’s
“confidence” in the actual CASH erodes. At that point, there is a stampede into real goods and real[/B][/INDENT]
09.10.2008
Einlagensicherung [B][B]Bei welcher Bank ist mein Geld sicher?[/B][/B]
[B]Mit ihrer aggressiven Kundenwerbung in Deutschland steht die Kaupthing[IMG]http://bc3.handelsblatt.com/images/icon/loading.gif[/IMG] Bank nicht alleine da. Auch zahlreiche andere ausländische Banken werben mit hohen Zinsen auf Tagesgeld und Festgeld um deutsche Kunden. Doch die Sicherheit der Einlagen bei den Anbietern mit den Top-Konditionen ist sehr unterschiedlich.[/B]
[IMG]http://bc1.handelsblatt.com/ShowImage.aspx?img=2065277&width=168&height=168[/IMG][URL="javascript:void()"][IMG]http://bc3.handelsblatt.com/images/icon/ico_image_lupe.gif[/IMG][/URL]
Bankenstadt Frankfurt: Die Konditionen der Institute sind sehr unterschiedlich. Foto: AP
HB DÜSSELDORF. Die Advanzia Bank, die mit 5,85 Prozent im Moment den höchsten Tagesgeldsatz bietet, fällt unter die luxemburgische Sicherung. Einlagen sind hier bis 50 000 Euro sind geschützt. Lediglich 20 000 Euro sind bei der.kom Deniz Bank und der Vakifbank gesichert, beides österreichische Töchter türkischer Institute.
Ein Institut nach niederländischem Recht ist die Credit Europe Bank. Die Einlagen sind hier bis 100 000 Euro staatlich gesichert. Das gleich gilt für die GarantiBank und die Akbank N.V., die ihren Sitz in Rotterdam hat und eine Niederlassung in Essen betreibt.
Die Akbank AG mit Sitz in Frankfurt ist hingegen Mitglied im Einlagensicherungsfonds des Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Banken, im Rahmen dessen die Einlagen von Anlegern bis zur Höhe von 30 Prozent des haftenden Eigenkapitals der Bank, welches derzeit rund 200 Mio. Euro beträgt, abgesichert sind..kom
Genauso verhält es sich bei der indischen ICICI Bank. Auch sie ist Mitglied im Einlagensicherungsfonds der deutschen Privatbanken. Einlagen jedes einzelnen Kunden sind deshalb bis in eine Höhe von 30 Prozent des Eigenkapitals der Bank gesichert, das heißt, für die meisten Kunden de facto unbegrenzt.
Den gleichen Weg geht die spanische Großbank komplett gesichert. Gleiches gilt für die türkische Ziraat Bank, die freiwillig dem Einlagensicherungsfonds des Bundesverbandes Deutscher Banken beigetreten ist.
[B]5,50 Prozent: Akbank hebt Tagesgeldzins an[/B]
Artikel erstellt am Dienstag, 30. September 2008 von [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/author/dethenke/"]Detlef Henke[/URL] | Kommentare: 7
Kategorie: [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/allgemein/"]Allgemein[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/festgeld/"]Festgeld[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/tagesgeld/"]Tagesgeld[/URL] Tags: [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Bank"]Bank[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/deutsch"]deutsch[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Einkauf"]Einkauf[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Euro"]Euro[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Festgeld"]Festgeld[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Geb%C3%BChren"]Gebühren[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Geld"]Geld[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Gesch%C3%A4ft"]Geschäft[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Kunde"]Kunde[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Tagesgeld"]Tagesgeld[/URL], [URL="http://www.geld-kompakt.de/category/Tier"]Tier[/URL]
Kennen Sie die Akbank? Die Bank trägt in Holland, England und Deutschland den Namen Akbank N.V. Ihren Hauptsitz hat sie in den Niederlanden, in der schönen Einkaufsstadt Essen befindet sich die deutsche Niederlassung.
Die Akbank N.V. ist ein Tochterunternehmen der wohl größten türkischen Geschäftsbank, Akbank T.A.S. Die Akbank ist nicht Mitglied im Einlagensicherungsfonds des Bundesverbands deutscher Banken e.V. Sie ist Mitglied in der niederländischen Einlagensicherung. Konkret bedeutet das:
The selling has reached historic proportions. There literally is a “run on the market,” as investors worldwide are dumping stocks. It seems that the major catalyst for this selling is the fact that the newest large banks primarily J. P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and possibly Morgan Stanley as well — have issued massive margin calls to hedge funds and other professional traders who use these banks as prime brokers. These calls were not issued because of market losses, but more because the banks arbitrarily decided that they wanted their customers to use less leverage. Margin rates as low as 15% for broker dealers were raised to 35%; hedge funds who had been used to operating on high leverage were told that they had to bring accounts up to a much larger percentage of equity. In this illiquid environment, where all manor of exotic securities literally have no bids, the only place to raise the cash to meet margin calls was to sell stock. That is what really set this market over the edge — as the first notice of these calls were issued on October 2nd and 3rd. There was something of a grace period to meet the calls, but funds realized they weren’t going to be able to meet them other than by selling stock. There are rumors that the most massive of the calls are due Monday (October 13th). If so, this market could continue to decline through then.
[B]Financial crisis: Countries at risk of bankruptcy from Pakistan to Baltics [/B]
[B]A string of countries face the risk of "going bust" as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world's most dangerous spots. [/B]
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 7:55PM BST 10 Oct 2008
Nuclear-armed Pakistan is bleeding foreign reserves at an alarming rate leading to fears that it could default on its loans.
There are mounting fears that Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Argentina could all now slide into a downward spiral towards bankruptcy, while western banks exposed to property bubble across Eastern Europe have seen their share price crushed.
The markets are pricing an 80pc risk that Ukraine will default, based on five-year credit default swaps (CDS) – an insurance policy on a country being able to pay its debts.
The country's banking system has begun to break down after years of torrid credit growth; its steel mills are shutting as demand collapses; and the political crisis is going from bad to worse.
President Viktor Yushchenko dissolved parliament this week in a dispute that risks bitter conflict with the country's Russian bloc. Diplomats fear Moscow could be drawn into the crisis – or even use it as a pretext to occupy territory in a replay of the Georgia invasion this summer.
Ukraine's government seized Prominvestbank this week, suspending payments to creditors. It closed the Kiev stock market, which has fallen 73pc this year.
Emerging market stocks have been tumbling since their peak in October, when investors were still betting that rising stars such as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) were now strong enough to shake off a US crisis. That illusion has been shattered.
The International Monetary Fund said it is mobilising a "rapid-fire" fund worth several hundred billion dollars to stop a domino collapse across the developing world.
The trigger for the latest round of capital flight has been the lightning implosion of Iceland. BNP Paribas warned clients yesterday that the island is heading for "sovereign default" with contagion risks for other economies that have been living beyond their means on foreign credit.
Hungary had to intervene yesterday to prop up its markets following a run on country's biggest lender OTP. The Budapest bourse fell 13pc. The treasury had to scrap a bond auction.
The most new mortgages in Hungary are in Swiss francs, leaving the homeowners facing a vicious squeeze as the forint plunges against the franc.
In Pakistan, the rupee has fallen to an all-time low. Standard & Poor's downgraded the country's sovereign debt to near write-off levels of CCC-plus. The central bank's foreign reserves have fallen to $4.7bn (£2.73billion).
"The danger of default is hovering," said Professor Kaisar Bengali from Karachi University.
"Pakistan may not be able to re-pay its debt or import anything," he said, adding that the country cannot assume that it will be bailed out for strategic reasons.
Default risk on Kazakhstan's top banks has risen to 70pc as property bubble bursts in the former Soviet republic and reliance in foreign credit comes back to haunt.
The country has mortgaged its future to oil prices, which crashed below $80 a barrel yesterday as the whole nexus of commodities (except gold) buckled in a wave of forced selling.
Analysts warn that it is leading indicator for what could happen if Russia if crude falls much further. .dng.dng.kom
EMERGING MARKETS REPORT
[B]Emerging markets tumble in global stock rout[/B]
By [URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+108+101+115+111+118+97&y=Polya+Lesova&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B0e4e5665-c68d-4a4b-b38e-58e76b3b31e9%7D&siteid=mktw"]Polya Lesova[/URL], MarketWatch
[COLOR=#A3A3A3]Last update: 5:00 p.m. EDT Oct. 10, 2008[/COLOR]
[IMG]http://i.mktw.net/mw3/community/images/btns/icons/site/comments.png[/IMG][URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/emerging-markets-tumble-some-countries/story.aspx?guid=%7B0E4E5665%2DC68D%2D4A4B%2DB38E%2D58E76B3B31E9%7D#comments"]Comments: 20[/URL]
[B]NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks from Thailand to Turkey and from India to the Czech Republic plunged into panic mode Friday, forcing trading suspensions on numerous emerging-market exchanges, as a collapse in investor confidence and fears about a global recession amplified selling pressures around the world. [/B]
[IMG]http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Image.aspx?Guid=0e4e5665c68d4a4bb38e58e76b3b31e9&Track=201[/IMG]
Stock exchanges in Iceland, Indonesia and Russia didn't even open, while steep declines forced trading halts in Thailand, Austria, Romania and Brazil.
As the global financial crisis has spread to nearly every corner of the world, many emerging markets have suffered dramatic declines this year, raising questions about their growth prospects.
"The outlook for emerging markets is good, but we can't put a specific timetable to the end of the year," said Mark Mobius, the veteran emerging markets investor and executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, where he oversees some $30 billion in assets. [URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/mobius-sees-buying-opportunities-emerging/story.aspx?guid=%7BE22E25F8%2D4A60%2D4ABE%2D9D54%2DB86BF24E9C79%7D"]Read more. [/URL]
"With the irrationality now hitting markets worldwide, it is impossible to guess the short-term direction of the market," Mobius told MarketWatch in emailed comments. "Needless to say, there are wonderful opportunities to buy, but that does not mean that prices can't go down further."
In Latin America, Brazil's Bovespa stock index tumbled as much as 10% in early trading in Sao Paulo, forcing the exchange to suspend trading for half an hour because of a circuit breaker.
Tracking a late rebound on Wall Street, the Bovespa recouped some losses to end down 4%.
Elsewhere in the region, Chile's IPSA index fell 3%, Mexico's IPC index dropped 2% and Argentina's Merval declined 6%. [URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/stocks-slammed-across-region-risk-adverse/story.aspx?guid=%7BFBEEF5C0%2DBFF7%2D4CF0%2DA1BB%2DFB51B84F8250%7D"]Read more.[/URL]
"Panic has taken over as the credit crisis has compounded fears of a long, drawn-out economic recession."
— Analysts at RBC Capital Markets
On Wall Street, U.S. stocks rallied back from stiff losses to end mostly lower, capping the worst week ever for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ([URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes//djia"]DJIA[/URL]:DJIA
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<img class="pixelTracking" border="0" width="1" height="1">[URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=DJIA"]DJIA[/URL], , ) and the S&P 500 ([URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes//spx"]SPX[/URL]:S&P 500 Index
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<img class="pixelTracking" border="0" width="1" height="1">[URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=SPX"]SPX[/URL] 899.22, -10.70, -1.2%) . After trading in a 1,000-point range that had it down nearly 700 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 128 points, or 1.5%, to 8,451.19, down nearly 1,900 points, or 18.2%, for the week. [URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/us-stock-indexes-looking-weekly/story.aspx?guid=%7BC902D7A5%2D33DA%2D4E7E%2D952F%2D9082B4401FEA%7D"]See Market Snapshot. [/URL]
There has been "equity-market carnage," said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a research note. "Panic has taken over as the credit crisis has compounded fears of a long, drawn-out economic recession."
In the debt markets, the EMBI+ spread index soared 31 basis points to 567 basis points, according to data from RBC Capital Markets.
Eastern Europe hit hard
In Eastern Europe, Russian stock markets remained closed. The Czech Republic's PX stock index fell 15% and Poland's WIG 20 stock index dropped 8%. Turkey's IMKB-100 stock index declined 8%.
After dropping sharply earlier in the day, Hungary's BUX stock index reclaimed some ground to end down 3%.
In Romania, the Bucharest Stock Exchange was closed for trading during most of the session. The BET stock index tumbled 10%.
"The heavy selling continued in CEE [Central and Eastern Europe], and the markets here were dominated by fear," said Adrian Ciocoi, Bucharest-based head of research for emerging Europe at Riedel Research Group.
"Confidence is pretty much rock-bottom and investor sentiment is low," Ciocoi said. "The financial markets were knocked down and the white towel is going to be thrown ... increasing signs of capitulation."
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei and Thailand's SET indexes led the sharp declines. The SET index in Bangkok ended down 10% after halting trading temporarily due to circuit breakers.
India's Sensex stock index fell 7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index also tumbled 7%, while China's Shanghai Composite index fell 3.6%. [URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/nikkei-slumps-end-week-24/story.aspx?guid=%7BE8F8480F%2D1B6A%2D4289%2D9BAE%2D6628C5A0F090%7D"]See Asia Markets. [/URL]
In New York, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Fund ([URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes//eem"]EEM[/URL]:iShares:MSCI Emerg Mkt
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<img class="pixelTracking" border="0" width="1" height="1">[URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=EEM"]EEM[/URL] 24.55, +1.38, +6.0%) , which tracks the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, reversed earlier sharp losses and ended up 1%.
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<img class="pixelTracking" border="0" width="1" height="1">[URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=RSX"]RSX[/URL] 16.63, +0.93, +5.9%) , which tracks the Russian stock market, rose 3%, while the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF ([URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes//ewz"]EWZ[/URL]:iShares:Brazil
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Last: 34.44+2.23+6.92%
4:00pm 10/10/2008[IMG]http://i.mktw.net/images/loading-chart.gif[/IMG]
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<img class="pixelTracking" border="0" width="1" height="1">[URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=EWZ"]EWZ[/URL] 34.44, +2.23, +6.9%) dropped 4%.
The prices of many commodities fell sharply, with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index ([URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes//crb"]CRB[/URL]:reuters jefferies crb index price
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Last: 289.89-20.64-6.65%
3:11pm 10/10/2008[IMG]http://i.mktw.net/images/loading-chart.gif[/IMG]
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<img class="pixelTracking" border="0" width="1" height="1">[URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=CRB"]CRB[/URL] 289.89, -20.64, -6.6%) , a benchmark gauging the prices of major commodities, fell 7%.
Crude futures suffered their third-largest daily loss in dollar terms on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dropping to their lowest closing level since mid-September 2007. November crude closed at $77.70 per barrel, down $8.89, or 10.3%, for the session and down 17.2% for the week. Crude is down 47.2% from the record intraday high of $147.27 seen on July 11. [URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/oil-ends-below-78-more/story.aspx?guid=%7BB2123CB3%2D760C%2D4C0A%2D918C%2D4219EBF06F23%7D"]See Futures Movers.[/URL]
Many emerging economies, such as Russia and Brazil, are major commodity exporters, and the recent plunge in commodities prices has taken its toll on them. [IMG]http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif[/IMG].dng.dng
[B]Kolumne[/B]
[B]Banken gerettet, Staat pleite[/B]
[B]von [URL="http://www.ftd.de/meinung/leitartikel/:Kolumne-Banken-gerettet-Staat-pleite/426196.html?mode=autor"]Wolfgang Münchau [/URL][/B]
Mit dem europäischen Rettungspaket haben wir ein privates Kreditproblem womöglich in ein weltweites Solvenzproblem transformiert - wenn schließlich der globale Bondmarkt einbricht.
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ZUM THEMA
[LIST][*]Teilverstaatlichung von Banken: US-Regierung stutzt Abfindungen ([url]http://www.ftd.de/politik/international/:Teilverstaatlichung-von-Banken-US-Regierung-stutzt-Abfindungen/425813.html[/url])[*]Dax & Stoxx-Schlussbericht: Erleichterung über Rettungspaket hält an ([url]http://www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/marktberichte/:Dax-Stoxx-Schlussbericht-Erleichterung-%FCber-Rettungspaket-h%E4lt-an/425838.html[/url])[*]Widerstand gegen Rettungspaket: Länder fürchten Doppel-Belastung ([url]http://www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/:Widerstand-gegen-Rettungspaket-L%E4nder-f%FCrchten-Doppel-Belastung/426101.html[/url])[*]Das Rettungspaket: Hilfe mit Verfallsdatum ([url]http://www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/:Das-Rettungspaket-Hilfe-mit-Verfallsdatum/425891.html[/url])[*]Teures Hilfspaket: Länder feilschen um Rettungsplan ([url]http://www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/:Teures-Hilfspaket-L%E4nder-feilschen-um-Rettungsplan/425805.html[/url])[/LIST]
Das mit heißer Nadel gestrickte Rettungspaket der Bundesregierung und anderer europäischer Regierungen hat zwar am Montag die Märkte begeistert, das Problem aber nicht gelöst. Eine Garantie des gesamten Finanzmarkts, wie wir sie jetzt ausgesprochen haben, kann genau so ein Problem darstellen wie die Totalverweigerung zuvor. Europas Regierungen haben hier im Digitalmodus von null auf eins umgeschaltet. Wir fahren jetzt nicht mehr mit Vollgas auf eine Wand zu, sondern auf einen Abgrund. Unser Optimierungsproblem besteht darin, den Finanzsektor zu stabilisieren, ohne dabei den öffentlichen Sektor zu destabilisieren.
Den neuesten Zahlen der Bundesbank zufolge gibt es in Deutschland 2003 Banken, mit Aktiva von knapp 8000 Mrd. Euro. Das ist etwas mehr als das Dreifache des jährlichen Bruttoinlandsprodukts des Staates. Nicht all diese Aktiva sind schlecht, aber viele sind möglicherweise zu optimistisch bewertet. Ob ein Paket im Gesamtvolumen von 500 Mrd. Euro ausreicht oder nicht, weiß auch die Bundesregierung nicht. Dazu kommt noch, dass wir jetzt vor einem sehr starken globalen Abschwung stehen und dass wir trotz der Weigerung der Kanzlerin und ihres Finanzministers um ein großes Konjunkturpaket wahrscheinlich nicht herumkommen werden, ohne in einer Depression zu versinken.
Wenn wir jetzt das gesamte Bankwesen garantieren und danach womöglich noch die Versicherungen und die so mächtig überschätzte Autoindustrie mit staatlichen Hilfen abfedern wollen, dann wird die Luft für ein Konjunkturpaket dünn. Das Problem ist nicht einmal der europäische Stabilitätspakt - hier werden diesmal alle nur denkbaren Ausnahmen zugelassen. Das Problem liegt in der langfristigen Solvenz unseres Staates.
[B]Banken ohne Wert[/B]
Die von der Bundesregierung in Aussicht gestellten 500 Mrd. Euro entsprechen ungefähr 20 Prozent unseres Bruttoinlandprodukts. Das heißt, zumindest zeitweilig könnte die Schuldenquote von derzeit 63 Prozent auf rund 83 Prozent hochschnellen. Natürlich würde man später die teilverstaatlichten Banken wieder privatisieren, doch da wir uns jetzt einem ganz anderen Zeitalter für das globale Finanzsystem nähern, ist überhaupt nicht klar, ob wir uns da nicht etwas schönrechnen. Die meisten unserer 2003 Banken sind kaum etwas wert. Und selbst die wenigen soliden Banken werden weniger Gewinne einfahren und weniger Dividenden ausschütten als früher. Dass der Staat ein günstiges Geschäft machen wird, ist unwahrscheinlich. Ich würde hier jede sogenannten Investition als eine Ausgabe betrachten.
Eine weitere interessante Zahl: Die EU-Kommission schätzt, dass es in der Europäischen Union nur 44 systemisch wichtige Banken gibt. Es ist nicht sehr wahrscheinlich, dass sich von diesen 44 Banken die meisten in Deutschland befinden, eher sind es vier oder fünf. Der britische Premier [URL="http://www.ftd.de/personen/B/BrownGordon"]Gordon Brown[/URL] hat schließlich auch nicht das gesamte britische Finanzsystem gerettet, sondern zunächst eine kleine Auswahl von acht Kandidaten getroffen, die der Staat zu rekapitalisieren bereit ist. So eine Auswahl hätten wir auch treffen müssen - die Zahl wäre größer als null, aber viel kleiner als 2003.
Als am Sonntagabend das Paket verabschiedet wurde, war ich zunächst verwirrt. Ich hatte erwartet, dass es eine explizite Garantie für den Geldmarkt geben würde, schließlich ist der in der vergangenen Woche vollkommen implodiert. Die Geldmarktsätze, an denen viele Hypotheken- und Unternehmenskredite hängen, sind viel zu hoch. Der Grund, warum es jetzt keine explizite Geldmarktversicherung gibt, wie viele Ökonomen sie zuvor gefordert haben liegt darin, dass man den gesamten Bankensektor total versichert. Sie ist also implizit da.